Risk literacy in health professionals comprises the ability to understand the benefits and harms of behaviors or treatments, and to communicate these in an understandable way. Yet many doctors, patients, journalists, and politicians alike do not understand what health statistics mean or draw wrong conclusions without noticing, with potentially serious consequences for health.
The causes of statistical illiteracy include inadequate teaching of statistical reasoning in medical schools, the emotional dynamics of the doctor–patient relationship, and conflicts of interest within the healthcare industry. Such conflicts often result in the intentional framing of information - both in patient pamphlets and in medical journals - to exaggerate the benefits of interventions while downplaying their risks.
Encouragingly, even a few hours of targeted training can significantly improve statistical understanding among doctors and medical students. Techniques such as using natural frequencies instead of conditional probabilities in risk communication or presenting absolute risks rather than relative risks are particularly effective. Risk literacy in health could save more lives than expensive screening programs and Big Data together.