Risk literacy in health professionals comprises the ability to understand the benefits and harms of behaviors or treatments, and to communicate these in an understandable way. Yet many doctors, patients, journalists, and politicians alike do not understand what health statistics mean or draw wrong conclusions without noticing, with potentially serious consequences for health.

The causes of statistical illiteracy include inadequate teaching of statistical reasoning in medical schools, the emotional dynamics of the doctor–patient relationship, and conflicts of interest within the healthcare industry. Such conflicts often result in the intentional framing of information - both in patient pamphlets and in medical journals - to exaggerate the benefits of interventions while downplaying their risks.

Encouragingly, even a few hours of targeted training can significantly improve statistical understanding among doctors and medical students. Techniques such as using natural frequencies instead of conditional probabilities in risk communication or presenting absolute risks rather than relative risks are particularly effective. Risk literacy in health could save more lives than expensive screening programs and Big Data together.

Helping doctors making sense of health statistics

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Test yourself: Minimal Medical Statistical Literacy

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Book cover titled "Calculating Risks" by Gerd Giggerenz with a large gray question mark in the center, surrounded by warning messages and a yellow border.
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Book cover titled 'Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions' by Gerd Gigerenzer. The cover has a blue background with an illustration of a fish with the sail of a boat on top of it.
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Book cover titled "Better Doctors, Better Patients, Better Decisions" with the subtitle "Envisioning Health Care 2020." Edited by Gerd Gigerenzer and J. A. Muir Gray. Features a minimalist circular black and blue brushstroke design.
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