30.06.2025 / Thomas Bauer

Whether fewer public holidays could boost Germany's gross domestic product is a perennial debate – most recently with an eye on Whit Monday. Some estimates reckon with up to €8.6 billion. The “Unstatistik des Monats” (“Unstatistic” of the Month) for June asks: What is the truth behind such calculations? And how reliable are the figures?

The demographic trend for the coming years poses considerable challenges for the German labor market. With the baby boomers reaching retirement age in the foreseeable future, the number of people of working age will fall by 1.6 million (with high immigration) or 4.8 million (with low immigration) by the mid-2030s, according to the Federal Statistical Office. One way to overcome the challenges associated with the decline in the labor force is for the remaining workers to work more. Against this backdrop, last month we discussed the narrative that Germans are too lazy. This month, we are looking at the hotly debated question of how much additional revenue could be generated in Germany if one public holiday were to be eliminated. The discussion focuses in particular on Whit Monday, the elimination of which could allegedly increase Germany's gross domestic product (GDP) by up to €8.6 billion. 

But how did this figure come about? Here a simple estimate: Last year, Germany had a GDP of €4.31 trillion and 249 working days. That would amount to €17.3 billion per day, or 0.4% of the GDP. However, it's not that simple. Economic performance fluctuates greatly over the course of the year. Among other things, it depends on the season in which the public holiday falls. This would not apply to Whit Monday, as it always falls on a Monday, between May 11 at the earliest and June 14 at the latest. All one needs to examine is the expected effect of omitting one working day in the second quarter of the year. When doing away with a public holiday, indirect effects must also be taken into account, in particular whether the cancellation would result in the loss of a potential four-day weekend. This would also not apply to Whit Monday. Finally, one needs to look at the individual sectors of the economy and consider how much work is done in each despite public holidays and to what extent the elimination of a public holiday would only distribute the given work more evenly. This is because here no additional revenue would be generated if a public holiday were eliminated. In some sectors of the economy, such as the restaurant industry, more work in fact is likely to be done on public holidays.

But where does the 8.6 billion euro figure come from? According to calculations by the German Economic Institute (IW), it represents the upper limit of an estimate based on assumptions from a report by the German Council of Economic Experts (SVR). Some time ago, the SVR examined in depth the financial impact that the elimination of the Day of Repentance and Prayer would have on the German economy. However, this expert opinion dates back to 1995. The SVR concluded that two simulated scenarios could be realistic. These result in a hypothetical increase in GDP of up to 0.15 percent for 1995. Back-calculated to 1980, this would be an increase up to 0.2 percent — exclusively for West Germany. In 2018, economic research institutes, including the IW, agreed that the effect of an additional working day on GDP would be around 0.1 percent of GDP. This is also the latest assumption conveyed by the Federal Statistical Office at the end of 2024. Today, that would amount to 4.3 billion euros per day. Thus, the economic effects of eliminating a public holiday fall within in a wide range, somewhere between 4.3 and 17.3 billion euros.

But even this range is most likely incorrect. It is difficult to apply calculations of the economic consequences of the elimination (or addition) of a public holiday from 1995 to the current situation. For one, the economic structure and labor productivity have changed considerably since then. For a reliable assessment of the economic effects of the elimination of a public holiday, one would have to reassess these effects and not simply multiply the historically determined 0.2% by the current GDP.